The last really good team the Chiefs played was the Bengals and they lost. They beat the Chargers, the Jags' competition last week, by 3 points, and the rest of their recent competition hasn't been strong. This is a much better Jags team than the last time the Chiefs faced them and we are now looking at a 9 point spread. Lawrence has grown immensely as a passer and bounced back from some uncharacteristically poor play in the first halves of his last two games, so let us hope his jitters are behind him. The weather will be been less than perfect on Saturday and the Jags have the edge in the run department, so a possible edge there. The Jags' O-line has protected Lawrence very well to date but the Chiefs are a voracious team when it comes to passer pressure. I expect a big game from Etienne on Saturday.
Mahomes is Mahomes, but the Chiefs' record against the spread is not impressive. This is too many points considering the Jags are on a huge and unexpected run against really tough odds this season. Look for a closer game that the line would suggest. Take an inspired Jags team and the points.