Charlotte comes into Friday night’s home game vs. Orlando having gone Under in five straight. While much of the focus right now is on how the Hornets’ offense will perform without Lonzo Ball (out for the season), looking at recent results it’s actually been the Hornets’ defense that’s primarily responsible for the string of Unders.

Over those last five games, the Hornets have allowed an average of just 107.4 points/game. This is well below their season average of 118.2 points/game allowed. Needless to say, I believe defensive regression is on the horizon for Charlotte.

At the offensive end, where they put up just 91 points in a loss to Phoenix Wednesday, the Hornets get a favorable matchup here facing an Orlando team that has allowed 121 or more points in each of its last three losses. Wednesday saw the Magic give up 139 to Milwaukee.

Charlotte may not be Milwaukee, but they did shoot well (54.3%) the last time they faced Orlando. That game ended up as a 119-113 final, won by the Magic, who were two-point underdogs.

No matter who comes out ahead this time, I expect this game to make it Over the total. Charlotte is 4-0 to the Over the last four times they’ve been off a double digit loss at home. This O/U is much lower than where the number closed (236.5) for last month’s meeting. 10*