The Heat didn’t have a great regular season by any means, but I trust them far more than the defensively inept Hawks this time of year. Miami closed on a 4-1 SU/ATS run to earn home court advantage for this play-in matchup, which will determine the 7-seed in the Eastern Conference.
I have to acknowledge the fact the Heat were not a good team to bet on in the regular season, especially when favored. But neither was Atlanta, who comes in at 35-45 ATS overall and 17-24 ATS on the road.
The Hawks allow 118.1 points per game, tied for fifth most in the league. Only Detroit, Indiana, Houston and San Antonio allowed more. This is going to be a problem tonight.
In three games vs the Heat this year, Atlanta allowed 130, 117 and 113 points. They’ve lost 8 of 9 here in Miami and are only 3-6 ATAS in those games.
Expect Jimmy Butler to be the “X-factor” here. He averaged 26.1 points, 6.1 rebounds and 5.1 assists in March, plus he always seems to step his game up in the playoffs. As a team, the Heat saw their offensive efficiency jump tremendously down the stretch and they’ve averaged 121.4 points/game since April 1. Lay it here. 10*