Since the inception of the play-in format, Unders have gone 9-3 in these games including a perfect 6-0 last year. But this O/U looks far too low.

Perhaps oddsmakers are fixated on the fact that all three of the regular season matchups between the Raptors and Bulls stayed Under the total. There were 217, 208 and 202 total points scored in those three games. As a result, we’ve got a far lower total here than any of those previous three matchups.

Bulls’ games averaged 224.7 PPG this year. Raptors’ games averaged 224.1 PPG. Going by those averages, there’s clear value here on the Over.

I looked through every Chicago result this season and this would be the lowest O/U for any game all season. The only two lower than 219.5 were both against Miami, who is the lowest scoring team in all of the NBA.

Toronto has had four games this year with lower totals. Three of them were in October. The last one was two days before Christmas, vs. Cleveland, and that game went Over with 225 total pts scored. 10*