The Leafs are back in a familiar spot; round one against the Lightning. I like their chances much better this year, especially in their home games. Toronto finished very strongly, winning four straight and beating Tampa, Florida and the Rangers. The teams are equally matched on offense, but the Leafs are much better on defense, and they are tougher to play against this year.

Tampa is a bit of a mystery this season. They were outright poor on the road, finishing 4 games under .500. Even Vasilevskiy hasn't been as dominant this season. He had some great games down the stretch, but was roughed up by the Leafs and the Rangers in his last two games. Samsonov will return to the net for Toronto. He has been better than steady down the stretch when he played, with a +.950 Sv % in his last three games.

With all of their previous experience, perhaps the Lightning can find another gear for the playoffs, but I am taking the Leafs until I see otherwise. Toronto to win Game one at home.