The Reds are 4-0 in Castillo's last four starts, and he has an ERA of 1.00 in those games. He is also 4-0 lifetime with a 1.73 ERA against Miami.
The Reds are averaging 5.3 runs over their last 10 games, which is seventh best in MLB. The Marlins are averaging an MLB-worst 2.2 runs per game over the same stretch. Take Cincinnati.