PREMIUM
Major
(NCAAF) Central Florida vs. Louisville,
Total: 53.00 | -110.00 Under
Result: Win
Total: 53.00 | -110.00 Under
Result: Win
This is a Performance Gap Analysis pick.
Based on years of experience, and significant trial and error, we have developed a performance gap analysis. It is based on the statistical hypothesis testing and concludes that yards per rush, yards per pass, and yards per play on offense and defense are most indicative of talent and less variable. They are lead indicators.
Yards per point and turnovers are more affected by random chance or luck and/or more correctable, hence more variable and tougher to maintain. They are lag indicators.
The former is more a precursor to future results than the latter and a dichotomy between the two subsets measures upside/downside.
Layman explanation. Louisville yards per point on defense, which our research shows they have been benefitting from good fortune. They have given up significantly fewer points than their stats indicate they should.
Louisville has possibly the best QB in the country in Teddy Bridgewate. UCF may have the most underrated in Blake Bortles. Bridgewater (125-for-175 for 1,872 yards and 18 TDs to two INTs) trumps Bortles (92-for-142 for 1,334 yards and nine TDs to three INTs), but both are playmakers.
The Cards are getting 2.1 yards per pass more than their opponents normally allow while UCF is getting 1.9 more. The total is very reasonable for two throwers of this quality.
Based on years of experience, and significant trial and error, we have developed a performance gap analysis. It is based on the statistical hypothesis testing and concludes that yards per rush, yards per pass, and yards per play on offense and defense are most indicative of talent and less variable. They are lead indicators.
Yards per point and turnovers are more affected by random chance or luck and/or more correctable, hence more variable and tougher to maintain. They are lag indicators.
The former is more a precursor to future results than the latter and a dichotomy between the two subsets measures upside/downside.
Layman explanation. Louisville yards per point on defense, which our research shows they have been benefitting from good fortune. They have given up significantly fewer points than their stats indicate they should.
Louisville has possibly the best QB in the country in Teddy Bridgewate. UCF may have the most underrated in Blake Bortles. Bridgewater (125-for-175 for 1,872 yards and 18 TDs to two INTs) trumps Bortles (92-for-142 for 1,334 yards and nine TDs to three INTs), but both are playmakers.
The Cards are getting 2.1 yards per pass more than their opponents normally allow while UCF is getting 1.9 more. The total is very reasonable for two throwers of this quality.
