I like UT Arlington in this one. The Mavericks are 5-11 but have faced the most challenging schedule in the Sun Belt Conference by far. Arlington's strength of schedule ranks as the 35th most difficult according to the College Basketball Power Index BPI ratings, no other team in the conference has faced a schedule ranked in the top 100.
Some of the Texas Arlington losses this season include at Nevada 80-73, Oregon 67-47, Gonzaga 72-66, and Houston 71-63. The Mavericks badly need to win this game at home and are favored for a reason, despite not having the better record.