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FREE PICK: MARYLAND -15.5 vs. MINNESOTA
(NCAAB) Golden Gophers (MINN) vs. Terrapins (MD),
Point Spread: -15.50 | -110.00 Terrapins (MD) (Home)
Result: Loss
Point Spread: -15.50 | -110.00 Terrapins (MD) (Home)
Result: Loss
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I'll lay the points with the Terps on Monday! Maryland regained momentum with its gritty performance vs. UCLA and has multiple matchup advantages vs. Minnesota.
The home team will knock down enough threes (3rd in 3PT% vs. the average opponent) and easy buckets around the rim to cover this large spread. The Terrapins prefer to work the ball down low (25th in near-proximity FG attempt rate) and make the most of those opportunities, shooting 64.9% (24th). They also rank 59th in offensive rebounding rate and convert quick points off second-chance shots at the 10th-highest rate in NCAAB. Minnesota ranks 177th in average opponent 3PT% and allows a lot of shot attempts at the rim (253rd in average opponent attempt rate). Derick Queen and Julian Reese will have big games in the paint and Ja'Kobi Gillespie (42.5 3PT%) and Selton Miguel (41.1 3PT%) will impact the game from long range.
Maryland will also excel defensively vs. Minnesota. The Terrapins force a lot of takeaways (13th in turnovers forced) and score a lot off those miscues (24th in potential quick points off quick steals and 40th in fast-break points). The Golden Gophers are a below-average three-point shooting team, are unlikely to score a lot at the rim and won't secure many offensive rebounds (Maryland ranks 48th in defensive rebounding). The Gophers aren't likely to get to the foul line much (Maryland ranks 6th in average opponent free-throw attempt rate) and they shoot just 61.8 percent (360th) at the line, anyway.
The Golden Gophers lost by 15 at Indiana and by 21 at Wisconsin in their previous road games. They haven't shown an ability to play consistently for 40 minutes and lack any significant edges to make the score closer than expected. I project the final margin of victory to be closer to 20 points for Maryland. Bet on the Terps at -15.5!
I'll lay the points with the Terps on Monday! Maryland regained momentum with its gritty performance vs. UCLA and has multiple matchup advantages vs. Minnesota.
The home team will knock down enough threes (3rd in 3PT% vs. the average opponent) and easy buckets around the rim to cover this large spread. The Terrapins prefer to work the ball down low (25th in near-proximity FG attempt rate) and make the most of those opportunities, shooting 64.9% (24th). They also rank 59th in offensive rebounding rate and convert quick points off second-chance shots at the 10th-highest rate in NCAAB. Minnesota ranks 177th in average opponent 3PT% and allows a lot of shot attempts at the rim (253rd in average opponent attempt rate). Derick Queen and Julian Reese will have big games in the paint and Ja'Kobi Gillespie (42.5 3PT%) and Selton Miguel (41.1 3PT%) will impact the game from long range.
Maryland will also excel defensively vs. Minnesota. The Terrapins force a lot of takeaways (13th in turnovers forced) and score a lot off those miscues (24th in potential quick points off quick steals and 40th in fast-break points). The Golden Gophers are a below-average three-point shooting team, are unlikely to score a lot at the rim and won't secure many offensive rebounds (Maryland ranks 48th in defensive rebounding). The Gophers aren't likely to get to the foul line much (Maryland ranks 6th in average opponent free-throw attempt rate) and they shoot just 61.8 percent (360th) at the line, anyway.
The Golden Gophers lost by 15 at Indiana and by 21 at Wisconsin in their previous road games. They haven't shown an ability to play consistently for 40 minutes and lack any significant edges to make the score closer than expected. I project the final margin of victory to be closer to 20 points for Maryland. Bet on the Terps at -15.5!
