Clay Holmes has been solid but not spectacular in his move from the bullpen to the starting rotation. He was a disaster as the Yankees' closer last season, but the Mets will give him a shot to regain his confidence as a starter. I'm not sold on that, and today, he faces a Miami team he just pitched against in his last appearance, which will help the Marlins. Taming the same lineup in consecutive outings is challenging, no matter the pitcher/hitters. This total feels too low — let's bet the over at 7.