Carlos Carrasco is far from a sure thing, especially against a hot Tigers offense. He's on the back nine of his career and hasn't been the pitcher he was for some time. Tarik Skubal is expected to dominate the Yankees, but NY has lost two straight and has plenty of firepower. This total is too low — all it will take is a couple of long balls or an early exit from Skubal to give the over a chance to cash at 7.5.