*8* Liberty Bowl SIDE WINNER on Kansas State.

The Kansas State Wildcats will be a big underdog in the Liberty Bowl versus Arkansas, and I don't see a lot separating these two teams in terms of talent. The Wildcats were just 6-6, but they lost to Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma State by a combined 16 points. I like their chances of keeping up with a Razorbacks team that won just seven games this season.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Kansas State Defense - On paper the Wildcats defense is awful, but I just don't think the numbers tell us the whole story. Take a look at their schedule, and you'll see that they faced Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and Texas Tech. Few teams outside the BIG12 play so many teams with such a prolific offense. I don't think Brandon Allen and the Hogs really compare.

2. Coaching - The Wildcats haven't had a losing season since 2008, before Bill Snyder took over for his second stint in Manhattan. With both teams having such a long layoff, it allows the coaching staff plenty of time to draw up a game plan. I wouldn't be surprised to see Snyder out-coach Beilema in this game.

3. X-Factor - The Razorbacks are 2-7 ATS in their last nine neutral site games.

Selection: This is a play on the Kansas State Wildcats (8*)