The set-up: I think 6-11 Illinois State is the "hungrier" team here. Clearly the outright win isn't out of the question with a spread like this, but I'm going to grab the points in the end. Most recently Illinois State fell 84-74 to Drake to fall to 1-4 in Conference play. Overall the Redbirds average 67.2 PPG and they allow 70.6. Loyola Chicago averages 70 PPG and it allows 61. On paper and as stated above, this one favors the visitors. But I believe the Ramblers come in complacent after two straight wins.

The pick: Note as well that Loyola Chicago is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten road games following a two games or more unbeaten ATS/SU streak, while Illinois State is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 home games following a loss by ten or more points and as an underdog of four points or less. Everything points to the slight upset, grab the points.

10* PLAY-BOOK on Illinois State.