The Bengals travel to Buffalo to play in the snow tomorrow against a favored Bills team. The Dolphins, the best pass-centric team the Bills have faced this year, put up 81 points in three games against Buffalo this year, winning once and losing the others by 3 points. The Bengals are an elite pass-first team with a far better defense than Miami's. With the spread now at 6 points, I am not at all confident that the Bills can put this game away, in spite of Cincinnati's O-line injuries. Burrow, of all passers, is the least likely to be seriously affected by O line deficiencies. Very high sack totals has been the norm for him until this year, and he has thrived anyway. The cold weather has not affected him, he loves the limelight, and he and the Bengals are unlikely to be affected by crowd noise.
At times last week, Allen moved the ball with ease against the Dolphins, but his slew of picks and fumbles in recent games is concerning. The Bengals play a very clean game when it comes to turnovers. A game-deciding mistake is far more likely to come from Allen and the Bills this week.
On paper Buffalo has the edge in defense, especially rush defense. The Bengals are unlikely to run the ball excessively, and as far as points-allowed goes, Cincinnati has the upper hand, with 17 on average L3 games, and 17 last week compared to the Bills' 22 points allowed L3 and 31 last week.
In the last ill-fated and shortened meeting of these two teams, The Bengals were moving the ball with ease. Look for a close game tomorrow, and take the Bengals plus the points.